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Prediction versus Explanation?
ICEWS is an early warning system designed to help US policy analysts predict a variety of international crises. This project was created at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency in 2007, but...
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Prediction and Good Judgment: Can ICEWS Inform Forecasts?
The prediction community owes a great deal to Phil Tetlock, who has been involved in some of the largest and longest evaluations of expert forecasts to date. Tetlock is perhaps most widely known for...
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Modeling and predicting IEDs
Improvised explosive devices, or IEDs, were extensively used during the US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, causing half of all US and coalition casualties despite increasingly sophisticated...
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The right kind of variance
or, How I learned to stop worrying and love event data. Nobody in their right mind would think that the chances of civil war in Denmark and Mauritania are the same. One is a well-established democracy...
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